@article{178146,
  keywords = {data assimilation, seasonal prediction, coupled model, SPEAR, model bias, model initialization},
  author = {Feiyu Lu and Matthew J. Harrison and Anthony Rosati and Thomas L. Delworth and Xiaosong Yang and William F. Cooke and Liwei Jia and Colleen McHugh and Nathaniel C. Johnson and Mitchell Bushuk and Yongfei Zhang and Alistair Adcroft},
  title = {GFDL{\textquoteright}s SPEAR Seasonal Prediction System: Initialization and Ocean Tendency Adjustment (OTA) for Coupled Model Predictions},
  abstract = { Abstract The next-generation seasonal prediction system is built as part of the Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research (SPEAR) at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). SPEAR is an effort to develop a seamless system for prediction and research across time scales. The ensemble-based ocean data assimilation (ODA) system is updated for Modular Ocean Model Version 6 (MOM6), the ocean component of SPEAR. Ocean initial conditions for seasonal predictions, as well as an ocean state estimation, are produced by the MOM6 ODA system in coupled SPEAR models. Initial conditions of the atmosphere, land, and sea ice components for seasonal predictions are constructed through additional nudging experiments in the same coupled SPEAR models. A bias correction scheme called ocean tendency adjustment (OTA) is applied to coupled model seasonal predictions to reduce model drift. OTA applies the climatological temperature and salinity increments obtained from ODA as three-dimensional tendency terms to the MOM6 ocean component of the coupled SPEAR models. Based on preliminary retrospective seasonal forecasts, we demonstrate that OTA reduces model drift{\textemdash}especially sea surface temperature (SST) forecast drift{\textemdash}in coupled model predictions and improves seasonal prediction skill for applications such as El Ni{\~n}o{\textendash}Southern Oscillation (ENSO). },
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
  volume = {12},
  pages = {e2020MS002149},
  url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020MS002149},
  doi = {10.1029/2020MS002149},
  language = {eng},
}